the quintessential non-cyclical pattern of human behavior

today was supposed to be a productive day of hardcore math and business. oh wells.
this blog entry needs a bit of intro. it was only supposed to be a short piece. but i got lazy and the entry got bigger and bigger and started encompassing more stuff. so i realized i should do it now before i forgot anything

i just finished watching a TED talk which has become a famous breeding ground for world changing ideas. here’s one that i thought i ought to remember for myself and for the purpose of this blog. it is that everything i write and the (rare) creativity that sparks out does not belong to me but a divine creative spirit. i am not a genius but i am merely loaning the spirit’s powers to create sth good. this idea removes the internal pressure that everything that comes out has to be refined and chosen, and also the external pressure of expectations. click the link; watching the video will earn you time by reminding you that creativity is a capricious and rare gift ie. don’t study for IB english.

i found myself ploughing intensely through another newsweek magazine during a no. 2 when i came across yet another article about the latest economic policy of obama based on the newest theories that “people are irrational actors, and that markets aren’t always efficient.” I don’t mean to be rude and interrupt this rising-from-the-ashes,-feel-good,-stop-this-from-ever-happening-again party but aren’t we at a stage in economics history to know that there will never be an end to this? that market will boom and bust and changing economic policies does not mean we’ll be better at predicting or preventing any of these. the reason why markets are unpredictable is precisely because the human notion that we, human beings, can choose our actions. we believe that our ability to predict markets improve after encountering defeat and learning from it. economics has encountered one massive paradigm shift after another because none of the theories are fail-proof. on the other hand, science has been able to growth steadily and surely because nature has cyclical patterns. animal act instinctively. they don’t wait for prey to multiply before they hunt. they hunt when they’re hungry. a simple survival mechanism.

unlike animals, we have conscious thought. we believe everyone else acts instinctively while we change our own actions. thus, a different boom and a different bust. the withstanding truth is that everyone still loses. the past economic booms and crashes have all had different reasons, durations: the oil crisis in 80s, the dot com bust at the beginning of the millennium, the credit default swap and subprime crash of last year. regardless of what we do to fill the holes in our financial regulations, investors will still find nooks and crannies to make millions and mislead the whole world with it.

the only way for us to every learn is to educate in a way that gives the total blame to the investors. investors will never learn because they always claim of having been misled by the system. Present the options, remain impartial, and let the investor take the total blame and consequence for all his actions. it’s the way i would also like to educate my children (if i don’t become over-protective and enamored with my own creation). experience is not equal to predictive foresight. men, will always act differently. therefore, we should not give biased opinions. one’s life is best lived by oneself. let you take the total consequence of your actions. let us merely show you the doors but not turn or point in anyway.  

digression: last last night, i dreamt about something. content is not important but the setting is.  the imaginary setting i remember was from a previous dream and the most amazing thing was how consistent everything remained to be. don’t know what to make of it.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s